Event Modeling

The National Center for Food Protection and Defense is a multi-disciplinary and action-oriented research consortium. Collaborations have been established at over 40 academic and private sector organizations.

The goal of the Event Modeling theme is to develop dynamic, real-world models of both food contamination events and public health responses. These models rapidly identify sources of contamination, food distribution points, and possible outbreak locations, and can also demonstrate interventions and responses using novel communication systems and actual data from food distribution; food consumption, and epidemiologic studies.

Event Modeling Publications

Event Modeling Theme Leader

Don Schaffner, Rutgers University

Current Projects

Livestock Epidemiological Modeling (USDA)
Sponsor: USDA

This project involves a cooperative relationship between the University of Minnesota, National Center for Food Protection and Defense (the Cooperator) and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), Veterinary Services (VS) to further the utility of infectious disease models to deliver analytically defensible input as needed by policy and decision makers. Objectives include recruiting and supporting the next-generation of expertise in infectious disease modeling to enhance the national capability in this highly technical and interdisciplinary field, enhancing interagency collaboration on the use of infectious disease models in support of the missions of the respective agencies, collecting critical data at regional, state, and local scales, including premises locations and livestock transportation networks, and addressing priority knowledge and capability gaps (including those influencing model complexity and scope).

Food Product Tracing Technology Capabilities and Interoperability
Tejas Bhatt, Institute of Food Technologists
Sponsor: DHS/NCFPD

The March 2009, the Office of Inspector General report “Traceability in the Food Supply Chain,” states that numerous outbreaks have demonstrated that expeditious identification (and removal) of potentially contaminated products is not currently possible. Following the examination of nine product tracing technology providers, 2-3 of these companies will be selected and further support will be provided to bridge existing interoperability gaps. This research will determine: 1) current capabilities of product tracing technologies, 2) critical points throughout the food supply chain where product tracing data must be collected and the appropriate data elements to collect will be identified, and 3) the ability of product tracing technology providers to work collaboratively to trace products.

Modeling Health Care Surge Capacity Requirements During an Intentional Attack on the Food Supply
Emma Hartnett, Risk Sciences International
Sponsor: DHS/NCFPD

The goal of this project is to develop a computer-based simulation tool that provides information on the ability of the current health care system to respond to an attack on the food supply and deal with the associated surge capacity requirements. Based upon user specified inputs the tool will allow exploration of surge capacity requirements for a variety of threat agents, food vehicles, geographical locations, and healthcare resource availability (and all associated combinations). Utilization of the tool will serve to educate users (policy-makers, administrators, responders) as to the impact of an intentional attack on the food supply and on the ability of the health care system to provide the necessary response (in terms of both laboratory testing/support and treatment of victims). In addition, it may be used to provide data that can be used directly preparedness planning.

Completed Projects

For more information on completed projects, contact us through our inquiry form.

Characterizing the Potential Use of Consumer Complaints Surveillance for the Early Detection of Foodborne Illness Events
Craig Hedberg, University of Minnesota

Consequence Management System
Jeff Sholl, BT Safety LLC

Conversion of the Academic CMS to a Web-Enabled Version for Academic Use
Sue Harlander, BT Safety LLC

Evaluation of Timelines for Botulism Outbreaks
Craig Hedberg, University of Minnesota

Examining Food Risk in the Large Using a Complex, Networked System-of-Systems Approach
John Ambrosiano, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Modeling the Public Health System Response to a Terrorist Event
Don Schaffner, Rutgers University
Craig Hedberg, University of Minnesota

Optimized Detection of Intentional Contamination Using Simulation Modeling
Don Schaffner, Rutgers University
Craig Hedberg, University of Minnesota

Public Health Investigation of Multistate Foodborne Outbreaks
Craig Hedberg, University of Minnesota

Vulnerability Assessment and Reduction of Economic Impact for the Fruit and Vegetable Industry: A Food Defense Assessment for Border Communities in the Southwest United States
William Nganje, Arizona State University